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Longest Triple Crown Drought In Sport's History Set To Be Broken At The Belmont Stakes 6-7-14

Mben

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When Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978, there was little thought that the next horse to sweep would be a long time coming. After all, Affirmed was the third horse in the 70s -- Secretariat in 1973 and Seattle Slew in 1977 -- to win the three races.Perhaps when Spectacular Bid, among the greatest horses ever, stunningly lost at Belmont Park in 1979 it was a harbinger of things to come.Still, few experts would have figured that the industry would go 35 years without another Triple Crown.Or that in 2014 we'd have our 13th horse since Affirmed going into the Belmont with a chance for a sweep.When California Chrome walks into the starting gate Saturday he'll be carrying more than Victor Espinoza on his back. Here are 13 reasons why this is the colt that will break the longest Triple Crown drought in the sport's history. Some of them may seem silly and not all of them are scientific. But if the game were an exact science we wouldn't be talking about a drought. No. 13. Triskaidekaphobia -- The fear of the No. 13 is a powerful one but not a fear that is held world-wide. In some countries it is seen as the luckiest of numbers. We know that the first 12 had no luck in the Belmont. Why shouldn't it be No. 13? Dan Marino and Steve Nash couldn't do it but Wilt Chamberlain, Alex Rodriguez, Kurt Warner, Pavel Datsyuk and Don Maynard in Super Bowl III all won titles with the No. 13. No. 12: High C -- Twenty horses who have won the Belmont started their names with the letter C. The most of any letter. That bodes well for California Chrome. You can only laugh at this if you don't get enraged when the guy next to you collects on the superfecta playing his children's birthdates.No. 11: Law of Big Numbers : 0-for-36? Do the math. Racing has to catch a break at some point. No. 10. Owners Steven Coburn & Perry Martin : Every Triple Crown winner needs some karma and Coburn and Martin certainly have paved the way for themselves. They named their stable Dumb Ass Partners because that is what they were called after they bred to an $8,000 mare. They then turned down a $6 million offer prior to the Kentucky Derby for their horse. Two working stiffs who gave up cash money for a chance at the brass ring? No racing god would be cruel enough to deny them. No. 9: Trainer Art Sherman -- Anybody who slept with Swaps prior to the 1955 Kentucky Derby has the kind of story the makes for racing history. More importantly though is the way that Sherman and his son Alan prepared the horse prior to the Kentucky Derby and the way they have brought him along since says California Chrome will be primed to run a great race on Saturday. And you have to root for a trainer (and ex-jockey) who says he never gives the rider pre-race instructions. That means Victor Espinoza can make changes on the fly if he runs into trouble. No. 8. Jockey Victor Espinoza : This is not Espinoza's first Belmont rodeo. He finished second in 2001 on AP Valentine and 9th on Sacred Light in 2006. But is his 8th place finish on War Emblem that makes him dangerous. War Emblem was also going for the Triple Crown but the front runner stumbled out of the gate and never got himself into contention. You can't pay for that kind of experience. But most important Espinoza and California Chrome are just a great fit. Like Ron Turcotte on Secretariat, Jean Cruget on Seattle Slew and Steve Cauthen on Affirmed, Espinoza seems a perfect fit on the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. Not only undefeated on the horse, Espinoza and the colt have never been seriously challenged and California Chrome is content to race at whatever pace Espinoza asks for and then explodes when the jockey decides it is go time. No. 7: Triple Crown backing -- If it takes one to know one then we'll have a Triple Crown winner on Saturday evening. Cauthen tells Jennie Rees of The (Louisville) Courier-Journal that he looks just like a freak horse. Affirmed owner Patrice Wolfson says he just has something special. No. 6. Luck -- It is good to be talented but talented and lucky is tough to beat. And you can't overcome bad luck. If you believe the story, Spectacular Bid stepped on a pin before the 1979 race. Alysheba (1987) got turned sideways; Sunday Silence (1989) ran into Easy Goer (second in Kentucky Derby and Preakness) on his best day; Real Quiet (1998) never saw Victory Gallop coming and lost by a nose; Charismatic (1999) broke his leg on the turn for home; War Emblem (2002) stumbled and I'll Have Another (2012) was injured and scratched from the race. Thus far, California Chrome has made every break out of the gate and has had no traffic troubles. One more day like that and he's in the history books. No. 5. Belmont Park -- Churchill Downs has fields up to 20 for the Kentucky Derby and the start is like a cavalry charge. Sometimes the winner is the horse with the best trip. In 1988, Risen Star was squeezed on the rail and finished third. He then easily won the Preakness and then the Belmont by 14 1/2 lengths. The Belmont is 1 1/2 miles, the field smaller and the track itself is so vast that it is almost impossible to get your horse into trouble. That bodes well for California Chrome who has shown his explosiveness. If he stays out of trouble it is hard to see him get beat. No. 4. Belmont pace: The distance of the Belmont makes it appear that a horse from the back of the pack has a great chance to make a stretch run for victory. But history doesn't bear that out. Just like a 1,500 meter runner doesn't sprint out of the blocks, the Belmont field won't be providing suicidal fractions out of the gate. That means the winner can usually be found running with the pack. In the last 14 Belmonts, only four winners were worse than fourth after mile. Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed were all first. California Chrome's running style has him stalking the leaders which has proved to be a winning formula. No. 3. Competition :This has not been a terrible crop of 3-year-olds but there also doesn't appear to be a dangerous rival as Sunday Silence had in Easy Goer and Alysheba had in Bet Twice. There will be some fresh shooters in the Belmont, and you never discount a horse who is more rested than yours, but for California Chrome there is no fear factor. Nos. 2-1: Best horse in the race -- Sure that seems simple but this could have been 1-through-13 because of course there is nothing more important. A full house doesn't win every hand but you have to bet it like it does. California Chrome hasn't just proved to be better than anyone else he has proved to be markedly better. You can factor in speed figures, trainer, jockey, owner, competition and distance and talent can trump them all. California Chrome is not a lock to win the Triple Crown but if he doesn't it is more likely that he somehow lost the race rather than someone flat out outperformed him.<a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/horses/2014/06/02/california-chrome-triple-crown-belmont-kentucky-derby-victor-espinoza-art-sherman/9865321/" >USA TODAY</a> Sports Reid Cherner covered his first Triple Crown in 1987. He's seen 10 Kentucky Derby-Preakness winners go down in the Belmont Stakes
 

Mben

No Deposit Forum Administrator
Staff member
My money is on California Chrome along with Wicked Strong and Samraat. No matter if I win or lose, it is going to be awesome to watch as history is made. To SEE a triple crown win my lifetime would be great! Wishing the best race ever for California Chrome!Which horses do you have your money on? Here are the post positions and morning odds for 6-4-14.1 -- Medal Count (20-1)2 -- California Chrome (3-5)3 -- Matterhorn (30-1)4 -- Commanding Curve (15-1)5 -- Ride On Curlin (12-1)6 -- Matuszak (30-1)7 -- Samraat (20-1)8 -- Commissioner (20-1)9 -- Wicked Strong (6-1)10 -- General a Rod (20-1)11 -- Tonalist (8-1)
 

Mben

No Deposit Forum Administrator
Staff member
Good luck to those of you betting on a Triple Crown tomorrow!
 

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